Partisan Gerrymandering Is Rampant this Cycle. Congress Needs to Act.
A misleading narrative has emerged that the gerrymandering hasn’t been all that bad and distribution of seats between the parties might not change much — this story misses the full, much grimmer picture.
January 16, 2022 Michael Li The Brennan Center for Justice
This piece was originally published in theWashington Post.
With redistricting now finished in just over half the states, a misleading narrative has emerged that the gerrymandering hasn’t been all that bad. By focusing on one narrow fact — that the overall distribution of seats between the parties might not change much — this story misses the full, much grimmer picture.
To be sure, new maps might not significantly increase seats in the near term for Republicans (who already enjoy a large advantage as a result of aggressive gerrymanders of the 2010 maps). But the maps remain deeply pernicious gerrymanders — and, in many ways, are even worse than before. By shoring up last decade’s gerrymanders, line drawers have breathed new life into distorted maps and ensured that elections in 2022 and beyond will be skewed, uncompetitive and deeply biased against voters of color.
With a showdown on the Freedom to Vote Act and John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act coming this month, it has never been more urgent that Congress act. Just ask voters in North Carolina and Texas. Under the congressional map passed by North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature, Republicans could win 71 percent of the state’s congressional seats with only 48 percent of the statewide vote. Republicans in Texas have engineered similar advantages. Texas Democrats would have to win 58 percent of the vote to be favored to carry more than 37 percent of the state’s congressional seats. In other words, Texas could turn a dark shade of blue and Republicans would still have a two-to-one seat advantage. That hardly looks “not so bad” for Democrats.
It’s important to remember that gerrymandering isn’t just about gaining new seats — it can also be about insulating the seats you already have from competition. And one of the biggest redistricting stories this decade is how competition is being sucked out of our elections, especially in Republican-controlled states.
Again, consider Texas. Under the old Texas congressional map, there were 11 districts that Donald Trump won by 15 points or more in 2020. Under the new map, 21 of 24 Republican districts will be such super-Trump districts. Overall, in four of the most gerrymandered Republican states (Ohio, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia), the number of heavily pro-Trump districts will go from 27 to 39 after redistricting, an increase of 44 percent. (The number of super-safe Biden districts also goes up by three in these states as a result of Republican packing of Democratic voters.)
