Thursday, September 16, 2021

California Has Low Covid Transmission Rates

 Calif. Vaccinations

Sept 16.  NYTimes. California Report.

 

Here’s some good news to start your morning: California has less Covid-19 transmission than any state in the country.

That’s according to federal officials, who on Wednesday ranked the state’s current coronavirus case rate the lowest in the nation.

Sure, there are mask mandates and other measures to credit, but most deserving of thanks is the Golden State’s high level of vaccinations.

More than 82 percent of Californians aged 12 and older have at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. Only nine states have more of their populations immunized.

The surge of the Delta variant has been a real-life experiment in the effectiveness of vaccines, one that appears to have helped Gov. Gavin Newsom survive a recall election on Tuesday. For the most part, places with high vaccination rates have been protected from the virus.

And in California, the Delta surge appears to have done something else as well: pushed vaccination rates even higher.

The number of people getting vaccinated here began to stall in June, but then spiked as the Delta variant took hold in late July. Ultimately, about 1.6 million Californians got a first dose of a coronavirus vaccine in August, up from the 1.1 million who did so in July.

It’s difficult to tease out what exactly led to the rise in vaccinations. California has recently mandated vaccines for state employeesteachers and health care workers. There’s also been new evidence of the strong protections the vaccines offer, even against the Delta variant.

 

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

U.S. Poverty Rate Falls To a Record Low

U.S. Poverty Rate Falls To a Record Low as Aid Helps Offset Job Losses.

 

By Ben Casselman and Jeanna Smialek


Published Sept. 14, 2021Updated Sept. 15, 2021, 10:07 a.m. ET

The share of people living in poverty in the United States fell to a record low last year as an enormous government relief effort helped offset the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression.

In the latest and most conclusive evidence that poverty fell because of the aid, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that 9.1 percent of Americans were living below the poverty line last year, down from 11.8 percent in 2019. That figure — the lowest since records began in 1967, according to calculations from researchers at Columbia University — is based on a measure that accounts for the impact of government programs. The official measure of poverty, which leaves out some major aid programs, rose to 11.4 percent of the population.

The new data will almost surely feed into a debate in Washington about efforts by President Biden and congressional leaders to enact a more lasting expansion of the safety net that would extend well beyond the pandemic. Democrats’ $3.5 trillion plan, which is still taking shape, could include paid family and medical leave, government-supported child care and a permanent expansion of the Child Tax Credit.

Liberals cited the success of relief programs, which were also highlighted in an Agriculture Department report last week that showed that hunger did not rise in 2020, to argue that such policies ought to be expanded. But conservatives argue that higher federal spending is not needed and would increase the federal debt while discouraging people from working.

The fact that poverty did not rise more during an enormous economic disruption reflects the equally enormous response. Congress expanded unemployment benefits and food aid, doled out hundreds of billions of dollars to small businesses and sent direct checks to most Americans. The Census Bureau estimated that the direct checks alone lifted 11.7 million people out of poverty last year; unemployment benefits and nutrition assistance prevented an additional 10.3 million people from falling into poverty, according to an analysis of the data by The New York Times.

“It all points toward the historic income support that was delivered in response to the pandemic and how successful it was at blunting what could have been a historic rise in poverty,” said Christopher Wimer, a co-director of the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at the Columbia University School of Social Work. “I imagine the momentum from 2020 will continue into 2021.”

Poverty rose much more after the previous recession, peaking at 16.1 percent in 2011, by the measure that takes fuller account of government assistance, and improving only slowly after that. Many economists have argued that the federal government did not do enough back then and pulled back aid too quickly.

Despite the more aggressive response this time, however, median household income last year fell 2.9 percent, adjusted for inflation, to about $68,000. That figure includes unemployment benefits but not stimulus checks or noncash benefits such as food stamps. The decline reflects the pandemic’s toll on jobs: About 13.7 million fewer people worked full time year-round compared with 2019.

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Description automatically generated

Median household income

$70

thousand

60

50

2020:

$67,521

40

Down 2.9%

30

20

10

Adjusted for inflation

0

’70

’80

’90

’00

’10

’20

Source: Census Bureau

By The New York Times

Among those who kept their jobs, however, median earnings rose 6.9 percent.

The share of Americans without health insurance was virtually unchanged, according to the Census Bureau report, a sign that pandemic measures and the Affordable Care Act may have helped people who would have otherwise lost coverage. But it is difficult to assess changes in health coverage last year. Census estimates conflicted with other government counts, and officials acknowledged problems with data collection during the pandemic.

The government defines poverty, under the more comprehensive definition, as an income level below about $30,000 for a family of four, although the exact threshold varies depending on family size, homeownership status and regional housing costs.


Understand the Infrastructure Bill

·        

  • One trillion dollar package passed. The Senate passed a sweeping bipartisan infrastructure package on Aug. 10, capping weeks of intense negotiations and debate over the largest federal investment in the nation’s aging public works system in more than a decade.
  • The final vote. The final tally in the Senate was 69 in favor to 30 against. The legislation, which still must pass the House, would touch nearly every facet of the American economy and fortify the nation’s response to the warming of the planet.
  • Main areas of spending. Overall, the bipartisan plan focuses spending on transportation, utilities and pollution cleanup.
  • Transportation. About $110 billion would go to roads, bridges and other transportation projects; $25 billion for airports; and $66 billion for railways, giving Amtrak the most funding it has received since it was founded in 1971.
  • Utilities. Senators have also included $65 billion meant to connect hard-to-reach rural communities to high-speed internet and help sign up low-income city dwellers who cannot afford it, and $8 billion for Western water infrastructure.
  • Pollution cleanup: Roughly $21 billion would go to cleaning up abandoned wells and mines, and Superfund sites.

The decline in poverty last year was broad-based. It fell among all racial and ethnic groups, among all family types, and among Americans at every age and education level.

Read more. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/14/business/economy/census-income-poverty-health-insurance.html?

 

 

  

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

CEO pay has skyrocketed 1,322% since 1978: CEOs were paid 351 times as much as a typical worker in 2020

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CEO pay has skyrocketed 1,322% since 1978: CEOs were paid 351 times as much as a typical worker in 2020: What this report finds: Corporate boards running America’s largest public firms are giving top executives outsize compensation packages that have grown much faster than the stock market and the pay of typical workers, college graduates, and even the top 0.1%. In 2020, a CEO at one of the top 350 firms in the U.S. was paid $24.2 million on average (using a “realized” measure of CEO pay that counts stock awards when vested and stock options when cashed in rather than when granted). This 18.9% increase from 2019 occurred because of rapid growth in vested stock awards and exercised stock options. Using a different “granted” measure of CEO pay, average top CEO compensation was $13.9 million in 2020, slightly below its level in 2019. In 2020, the ratio of CEO-to-typical-worker compensation was 351-to-1 under the realized measure of CEO pay; that is up from 307-to-1 in 2019 and a big increase from 21-to-1 in 1965 and 61-to-1 in 1989. CEOs are even making a lot more than other very high earners (wage earners in the top 0.1%)—more than six times as much. From 1978 to 2020, CEO pay based on realized compensation grew by 1,322%, far outstripping S&P stock market growth (817%) and top 0.1% earnings growth (which was 341% between 1978 and 2019, the latest data available). In contrast, compensation of the typical worker grew by just 18.0% from 1978 to 2020.

How the U.S. Avoided the Covid Depression

 

SEPTEMBER 14, 2021
Meyerson on TAP
How We Avoided Great Depression 2.0 Last Year
The great American socialist Michael Harrington used to say that if you wanted to solve the problem of low incomes, you should try providing money. If anyone doubted the soundness of this recommendation, those doubts should be dispelled by a look at the Census Bureau’s data on poverty rates last year, which the bureau released earlier today.

Beginning in March of last year, the pandemic sent unemployment soaring, faster than it’s ever grown before, and to rates not seen at least since the recession of 1981. Nor did unemployment rates recede to anything like pre-pandemic levels during the course of the year, as the pandemic remained stubbornly and fatally with us.

Despite all that, the overall economy didn’t plunge to Great Depression levels in 2020, and the share of Americans living in poverty, rather amazingly, was actually lower than the share living in poverty in 2019.

And that’s entirely because the government addressed the problem of abruptly lower incomes with money.

According to an analysis of today’s data by the Economic Policy Institute, two programs enacted last year to mitigate the pandemic’s economic toll are largely responsible. The first was the expansion of unemployment insurance, adding a $600 weekly benefit to whatever the various states were paying, and also extending eligibility to independent contractors and otherwise ineligible low-income workers. These expanded UI benefits kept 5.5 million people from descending into poverty last year, which, EPI calculates, is ten times the number of Americans rescued from poverty in the year preceding. And if Congress had not curtailed the provision of those $600 UI supplements as of last July, the multiple would have been a lot higher than ten.

The other anti-poverty measure the government enacted was the provision of $1,200 stimulus checks in the spring of 2020 to adults with incomes under $75,000 and $500 to each child under the age of 17. By EPI’s calculations, this kept 11.7 million Americans out of poverty.

Since the Democrats took control of the government this January, more such programs have been created, most notably the Child Tax Credit, which lifts more than half of impoverished American children out of poverty. The CTC was authorized for only one year; its extension depends on its inclusion in the pending reconciliation bill, and its continued efficacy depends on the Democrats’ not narrowing its scope, as West Virginia Sen. Ebenezer Scrooge—excuse me, Joe Manchin—has called for.

So, yes—money is a very efficient way to solve the problem of low incomes. 

HAROLD MEYERSON

Friday, September 10, 2021

Seminar Day 1

 Follow up on seminar of Sept 9.  

 

A video explanation of the common good, by Robert Reich.

Start at about 4 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2XFfh6BDv8   ( long) 

 

A description of the current economic systems by Robert Reich.  Written before the 2008/2012 economic crisis.

Super Capitalism: The Transformation of Business, Democracy, and Everyday Life. (2007)

 

The Common Good, Robert Reich,  2018. Includes a summary of the arguments above in Super Capitalism,

 

Basic principles of the common good.-

 some general principles for consideration this semester.

 

1.   In discussing the common good, we must consider social and political rights in addition to economic measures.

2.   Not all events and policies are economically determined.

3.   Consideration of the common good extends democracy into the economic discussions.

4.   The common good is a morale choice.   Not an economic principle,

5.   Neoliberal capitalism  ( which we will examine) often works against the common good. 

 

Covid.,

 

Here is President Biden’s announcement of expanded vaccine requirements. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA2SCoYl8_U

 

 

 

If you have an interest in drought.  PBS has a quite amazing series.

 

H2O Water; the Molecule, Pbs.

PBS   Episode 3. Drought. Season 1 Episode 3, 

Is inflation becoming a problem ?  Paul Krugman’s view.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/opinion/transitory-inflation-covid-consumer-prices.html


To answer those questions, we need to back up and ask what it means to say that inflation is transitory, anyway. And to do that, it helps to take a long view.

My sense is that many people believe that inflation wasn’t something that happened in America before the 1970s. But that isn’t true. Consumer price data go back more than a century, and there were several episodes of high inflation over that period. The ’70s weren’t even the peak:

Image
Inflation over the long run.
Credit...FRED

What was the difference between the ’70s inflation and the inflationary spikes associated with World War I, the end of World War II or the Korean War? The answer is that those earlier bursts of inflation were easy come, easy go: The economy didn’t exactly return to price stability painlessly, but the recessions associated with disinflation were fairly brief. Ending the inflation of the ’70s, by contrast, involved a prolonged period of really high unemployment:

Image
The cost of disinflation.
Credit...FRED

But what explained that difference? In the 1970s inflation became “embedded” in the economy. The people who were setting wages and prices did so with the expectation that there would be lots of inflation in the future. For example, companies were relatively willing to give their workers wage increases because they thought that their competitors would end up doing the same, so it wouldn’t put them at a competitive disadvantage.

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The question is whether inflation is similarly becoming embedded now.

We used to have a fairly easy, rough-and-ready way to answer that question: the concept of core inflation. Back in the 1970s, the economist Robert Gordon suggested that we make a distinction between the price of commodities like oil and soybeans that fluctuate all the time and other prices that are adjusted less frequently. An inflation measure that excluded food and energy, he argued, would give us a much better indicator of underlying — i.e. embedded — inflation than the headline number.

The concept of core inflation has been one of the huge success stories of data-driven economic policy. Over the past 15 years we’ve seen several surges in consumer prices driven mainly by commodity prices and much hyperventilating, mainly on the political right, about the return of stagflation or even imminent hyperinflation. Remember when Paul Ryan, the Republican representative of Wisconsin at the time, accused Ben Bernanke, the former Fed chairman, of “debasing the dollar”?

The Fed, however, refused to back off from its easy-money policy, pointing to quiescent core inflation as a reason not to worry. And it was right:

Image
Core for the win.
Credit...FRED

Unfortunately, at this point the traditional measure of core inflation doesn’t help much, because the pandemic has led to price spikes in unusual sectors like used cars and hotel rooms. So how can we find guidance?

The White House Council of Economic Advisers has been using a sort of “supercore” measure that excludes not just food and energy but also pandemic-affected sectors. This makes sense; in fact, I was arguing for such a measure months ago. But I’m aware that as one excludes more stuff from the Consumer Price Index, one exposes oneself to the charge that you’re saying that there’s no inflation if you ignore the prices that are rising.

Powell has pointed to a different measure: wage increases, which have been substantial in some of the pandemic-hit sectors but overall still seem moderate according to measures like the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker:

Image
Wage-price spiral? Not yet.
Credit...Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Lately, however, I’ve been wondering whether the best way to figure out whether inflation is getting embedded is to ask the people who would be doing the embedding. That is, are companies acting as if they expect sustained inflation in the future?

The answer, so far, seems to be no. Many companies are facing labor shortages, and they’re trying to attract workers with things like signing bonuses. But at least according to the Fed’s Beige Book — an informal survey that is often useful for getting a read on business psychology — they’re reluctant to raise overall wages.

Just to be clear, I’m not celebrating corporate unwillingness to increase wages. The point, instead, is that companies aren’t acting as if they expect lots of future inflation, where they can hike wages without losing competitive advantage. They’re acting, instead, as if they see current inflation as a blip.

So far, then, I’m still on Team Transitory: I think things are looking more like 1951, when inflation briefly hit 9.3 percent, than 1979. And if we finally get this pandemic under control, the inflation of 2021 will soon fade from memory.


Paul Krugman has been an Opinion columnist since 2000 and is also a Distinguished Professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center. He won the 2008 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on international trade and economic geography. @PaulKrugman

 

New  covid mandates.

 

 





'Time for Waiting Is Over': Biden's New Vaccine Requirements Target US Workforce

"My message to unvaccinated Americans is this," said the president: "What more is there to wait for? What more do you need to see?"

 

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/09/09/time-waiting-over-bidens-new-vaccine-requirements-target-us-workforce

 

 

 Comments are welcome in the comments section.

Duane Campbell