Checks and Shots

 

The Chief David Dayen, American Prospect

The first bill that President Biden introduced, even before taking office, was a $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which really picks up most of the leftover elements on pandemic relief that Democrats were unable to advance in the CARES Act and the December COVID relief bill. Two things stood out in the bill: the topping up of $600 checks in December to $2,000 and funding to get the vaccine produced and distributed. Those two pieces both probably have enough bipartisan support to pass, even in the Senate with 60 votes. The checks are incredibly popular and Republicans would be playing with fire to hold them up, especially if they know they can be dumped into a majority-vote budget reconciliation bill anyway (in other words, they’d have taken a bad vote for nothing). And there’s literally no amount of vaccine money that would not pay itself back and then some, by leading to reopening the country in full faster. So there’s an argument being made, within the House especially, to just pass those two elements—what I’m calling "checks and shots"—under regular order, and deal with the rest of the American Rescue Plan later. This has a couple different benefits. First, Biden would get an early, bipartisan legislative win, creating momentum for his presidency. That’s probably the most minor benefit, since "momentum" really isn’t a thing.

More important, a bill under regular order would get checks and shots out quick. Reconciliation takes time, and apparently the House is staying out of session next week. A full bill through reconciliation will run up against the extended unemployment deadline in March. By contrast you could put a checks and shots bill on the floor almost immediately.  Checks will circulate through the economy: the current $600 iteration is already boosting restaurants. With unemployment still high, any amount that can help people needs to get there right away. And vaccine money is vital. I know the private sector—God help us—wants to take over the rollout, but keep in mind that the most failed part of distribution right now is the Walgreens/CVS effort to vaccinate nursing homes. Who distributes the vaccine is less important than if they are funded for the effort in a coordinated way, with a Public Health Jobs Corps of 100,000 strong and a central government standing up mobile clinics and all the rest. And since we’re in a race with the more transmissible variant, time is of the essence. Third, as I’ve stressed, this is a trust-building exercise. Democrats ran and won in Georgia on checks. The Biden presidency is going to rise or fall on the vaccine rollout. Getting those priorities covered will show the public that promises can be kept. I know there’s a lot of Twitter grousing about $2,000 checks versus $1,400. I think Congress is likely to go with $1,400 but a standalone bill that isn’t risking the rest of the package is also more fertile ground to advocate for bigger checks.

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Punchbowl, which has reported a little on this, describes this as a "nibble" or a "big bite." But checks and shots are actually a significant portion of the American Rescue Plan. The estimate for $1,400 checks, especially ones that include adult dependents as the Biden bill does, is anywhere between $435 and $465 billion. Add $600 to that and it’s another $200 billion. And "shots," defined as a national vaccination program, is $160 billion. If you include the Public Health Jobs Corps and scaled-up testing to open schools and investing in COVID treatments, you’re scraping $400 billion, which is what the Biden fact sheet puts toward "critical measures for addressing COVID-19." So this "skinny" bill is anywhere between $595 billion and $1.07 trillion. Not very skinny! You could see it becoming comparable to the $900 billion relief bill passed a month ago.